Barron's Housing Report

Florida Real Estate

The Sunday edition of Barron's reports that second home prices are plunging in certain areas of the U.S., and says it may signal a multi-year correction for the housing market.

Take a look at some of this evidence from Barron's:
• In Naples, FL, sales of homes costing less than $1 million declined 45% in unit volume in the first four months of this year. More expensive homes fell 34%.

Barron's implicates speculative investors as the main reason for the pull back in prices. "The danger," says Barron's, "is that if enough of those investors decide the market has peaked, they could trigger a selling frenzy throughout the second-homes market. That, in turn, could add to the pressures in the main housing market.

Florida had a large percentage of speculator-owned homes: Naples at 45 percent and Cape Coral/Ft. Myers at 40 percent. The average level of investor-owned homes is generally 14 percent.

Ingo Winzer, president of The Local Market Monitor, comments to Barron's, "This makes me very worried because it implies that the price increases have been driven more by speculators than by people who are going to hold onto these properties, and indicates to me that there's a speculative boom."

The price jumps of the past decade or so have brought homes to (un)affordability levels not seen in years. Homes are overvalued in Florida, California, and several other vacation-home spots.

Homes in Naples, FL, says the company, are 96 percent overvalued based on income levels, population densities, and historical prices. Port St. Lucie/Ft. Pierce, FL, homes are 75 percent overvalued, and Ft Lauderdale homes are 54 percent overvalued.

But, Barron's does leave some room for hope. The magazine points out that the baby-boom generation continues to pile up inherited and earned wealth. And those baby boomers will likely buy a second home to retire to. In the long-run, points out Barron's, these may just be profitable investments.

The question is do you have enough time to wait out the storm or do you just want get on with your life?